AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESET CANADA - INDIA RELATIONS

“How is it that they live for eons in such harmony – the billions of stars… when most men can barely go a minute, without declaring war in their mind against someone they know” – Saint Thomas Aquinas

The impasse in Canada – India relations can be ascribed to certain watershed events in history. Relations hit a new low in September 2023 when, the then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed that agents of the government of India were involved in the assassination of a Canadian citizen and a Sikh separatist leader. Both sides expelled each other’s diplomats, and the dispute escalated with protests and clashes outside places of worship in Canada last year.

Complimentary Interests and Values

Around 1.8 million Canadians (2021 census) identify as Indian origin Canadians, which is over 5% of the Canadian population. The vibrant Indian diaspora in Canada serves as a bridge between the two countries. With their deep-rooted connections to India and their active participation in Canadian society, they embody the fusion of both cultures. Their contributions in various fields, from business to the arts, underscore the benefits of a collaborative relationship. The constructive potential of people-to-people relations between Canada and India holds a beacon of hope for shared prosperity.

India is the fifth largest economy in the world, is set to be the third largest economy by the end of this decade and is recognised as the fastest growing economy for the foreseeable future.

India’s aspiration to become a developed economy depends on reviving its manufacturing sector. The recent Indian Economic Survey identified 30 critical minerals essential for this process, 10 of which are 100% import dependent (based on assessment of reserves, import dependency, and future needs). The report highlights India’s need to diversify sourcing and concern over its vulnerability due to over reliance on China as its largest supplier for these critical minerals. China’s track record of leveraging mineral exports as a geopolitical weapon further accentuates this concern. Canada is uniquely positioned to meet India’s growing demand for critical minerals, thanks to its vast reserves. However, Canada’s contribution to India’s critical mineral imports amounts to only two per cent of its total critical mineral exports.

Canadian prowess in nuclear technology and an abundance of resources, aligns with India’s growing energy needs to seek net-zero carbon emissions, as well as affordable and scalable energy options. These are just but a few examples amongst several others that both Nations stand to comprehensively gain from.

The Way Ahead

The U.S., U.K. and Australia have also faced tensions with India over separatist activism from their soil but have not allowed these tensions to derail their relations. The intent and role of certain state and non-state forces that work against peace and progress and those who stand to gain from widening the rift, are often overlooked or ignored due to political compulsions. This is where prudent diplomacy and coherent policy making must prevent succumbing to manufactured divides aimed at sabotaging peace and economic prosperity. It’s a no-brainer – acrimony and partnerships do not go hand in hand.

The Griffin believes that ‘Headwinds create Opportunities’. The current economic turmoil because of the ongoing trade war with the U.S. and a political transition underway in Ottawa, present perfect opportunities to re-calibrate, re-align and reset Canada – India relations.

Indications to rebuild relations have been sent out by the new Canadian leadership and the Indian government alike. Strategic cooperation and an all-weather partnership will have to be aggressively pursued and strongly driven by the leadership, while working through diaspora and security sensitivities.

‘Everything in nature grows better together, than apart’